Eleanor escribió: 02 Abr 2019, 21:43 El estonio por mí que se quede en la semi y que pasen las polacas. Me merezco ese contenido en la final.

Olivian escribió: 02 Abr 2019, 22:19 Las polacas tienen que estar en la final.

Illinoise escribió: 02 Abr 2019, 22:22

Olivian escribió: 02 Abr 2019, 22:19 Las polacas tienen que estar en la final.

Si es que te mereces el título de centolla honorífica .

Olivian escribió: 02 Abr 2019, 22:34

Illinoise escribió: 02 Abr 2019, 22:22

Olivian escribió: 02 Abr 2019, 22:19 Las polacas tienen que estar en la final.

Si es que te mereces el título de centolla honorífica .

Good evening, folks, and welcome to today's statistical map and breakdown. I have always been a fierce critic of producer-picked starting order, because there is no doubt some positions in the show are more favourable than others. Indeed, just a few hours have passed since the order was revealed and it's already had an impact on the odds, which we'll be reexamining in the next few days. Before that, let's take you through the final to see which countries' qualification chances are looking better or worse after the starting order was released, taking into account historical qualification rates in that position over the past five years.

We start with the two countries who will be raising the curtains - Cyprus and Armenia. The honour of starting the show is usually considered a plum position, but openers have only qualified 60% of the time, and usually only one of the two does - the last time both openers went through was 2014. With Cyprus'  momentum and Armenia's generally very strong qualification rate, I have the feeling 2019 might be an exception like '14 was.

2nd place is dreaded in the grand final but is not a great position in the semis either, with only 30% qualifying from it. Montenegro's chances were doubted strongly from the time Heaven was picked at Montevizija, but the 2nd place could be even more damning for a marginal Irish song that could potentially have passed from a more favourable spot. Third is also not a great spot - last year, we had two qualifications there from Albania and Serbia, but neither stormed through, and before that, only 3 songs out of 10 from 2013-17 had qualified from 3rd. Not looking good, as a result, for Finland and Moldova. Neither song went through last year from 4th place, and it's generally a difficult position from which to qualify with only 40% rates. I predict Switzerland will get past this easily, but Poland might struggle.

5th and 6th, on the other hand, are a small purple patch with 70% - good news for Slovenia, Czechia, Latvia and Romania. I could see 3 of the 4 at least getting through. 7th and 8th are less fortuitous but a few big favourites have come in 7th in recent years like Netta - I think only Hungary will make it in SF1 and will not be coming in the top spots, whilst I wouldn't be surprised to see SF2's Dano-Swedish sandwich's constistuent pieces both go through. 9th is one of the best positions of all, with 80% of all songs starting there going through, and whilst neither Serbia or Austria have a big following this year, perhaps the dissonance with the upbeat songs preceding them will allow them to create a memorable moment.

10th has a decent qualification track record of 70%, but in the last two years, the song in SF1 in that position has qualified, whilst its counterpart in SF2 has not. I would not be surprised to see the same happen, with Belgium going through and Croatia falling. 11th and 13th have generally bad track records with 40% qualification, sandwiching a stronger 12th. Last year was a departure from the norm, with the song at 13th being much stronger and passing where the other two didn't - easily in the case of Cesar, barely in the case of Hungary. This year, that new trend seems set to continue - in SF1, Georgia is very doubtful for qualification and Australia is hit and miss, whilst Iceland is extremely hyped; in SF2, equally hyped Russia gets the thirteenth spot after an underwhelming Lithuania and a strong Malta whose live performance may nonetheless disappoint.

14th tends to be a non-qualifier dip before either a hyped or high profile entry (like Monsters or Dance you off last year or Beautiful mess in 2017). The formula tends to be repeating itself with Portugal, one of the most-talked about entries, and Norway, one with a fair degree of fan hype, coming after Estonia and Albania, who haven't got as many tongues wagging. Both countries have been really done dirty, especially Albania, a power ballad directly following a power ballad and preceding two hot favourites.

They're following that up with two very strong songs in their own right from Greece and the Netherlands - 16th is not usually a great place but I feel its average qualification rate will jump after this year, even though, in Greece's case, it has the weight of being the penultimate song - last year, both penultimate songs qualified, but in 2016 and 2017, none did. I fear the position may seal Macedonia's fate.

Amongst the biggest winners in terms of qualification chances, we always have to include the song that comes last. Only one show-closing song in 10 in the last five years has not qualified - Latvia's Line back in '17 - and being the last song before the lines open certainly seems to make an impression on voters. We will almost certainly be seeing the return of Azerbaijan to Saturday after last year's NQ, and Björkman has given an almighty boost to San Marino's qualification chances by letting Serhat perform last, who gets a “very favourable” rating despite performing 17th because he’s the curtain closer. It’s a poisoned challice, though, as going by previous years' convention, one of the two, if they qualify, will be placed first in the final and underwhelm in their Saturday results.

Eleanor escribió: 03 Abr 2019, 07:19 Me da igual que sea sueco, polaco o irlandés. La canción me parece random total, vamos, más o menos lo mismo que la sueca de este año.

Perracallejera escribió: 03 Abr 2019, 14:07 A mí me está dando por la letona ahora,ella me parece que tiene un gusto exquisito y una clase... una pena que pasen temas que no le llegue ni a la suela.
Y de Oto estoy enamorada.